Perché la produttività degli investimenti varia tra paesi? (Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?)

Kevin S. Nell, A.P. Thirlwall


Nelle equazioni della "nuova teoria della crescita" che includono il rapporto di investimento, tutte le altre variabili incluse sono determinanti della produttività dell'investimento.Convertiamo una equazione della "nuova teoria della crescita" in una produttività dell'equazione degli investimenti dividendo l'equazione attraverso il rapporto di investimento.Prendiamo un campione di 84 paesi sviluppati e in via di sviluppo nel periodo 1980-2011 e esaminiamo l'importanza di 19 variabili potenziali che potrebbero influire sulla produttività dell'investimento, utilizzando un algoritmo di selezione del modello da generale a specifico.L'istruzione, la crescita delle esportazioni, la stabilità macroeconomica, i diritti politici, la geografia e le spese governative si rivelano le determinanti più importanti.Non vi sono prove di rendimenti decrescenti degli investimenti, quindi gli investimenti sono importanti per la crescita a lungo termine.

In ‘new growth theory’ equations that include the investment ratio, all other variables included are determinants of the productivity of investment. We convert a ‘new growth theory’ equation into a productivity of investment equation by dividing the equation through by the investment ratio. We take a sample of 84 developed and developing countries over the period 1980 to 2011, and examine the importance of 19 potential variables that might affect the productivity of investment, using a general-to-specific model selection algorithm. Education, export growth, macroeconomic stability, political rights, geography and government expenditure turn out to be the most important determinants. There is no evidence of diminishing returns to investment, so that investment matters for long run growth.


JEL codes:  011, 033, 047



‘New growth theory’, investment, productivity of investment, cross-country growth regressions

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