Vulnerabilità del sistema bancario italiano. Diagnosi e rimedi (Dealing with the vulnerability of the Italian banking system)

Elisabetta Montanaro, Mario Tonveronachi

Abstract


The major vulnerabilities of the Italian banking system are the overhang of NPLs and low profitability. Differently from the attention given to excesses of NPLs, the profitability problem is normally considered to be a matter to be left to bank management and not an area of explicit direct regulatory action. Although focusing on capital requirements, regulators and supervisors seldom pose the question of where capital comes from. Using a large sample of 410 Italian domestic banking groups and individual banks, we propose an NPL stress test and a viability test that show: that the system’s vulnerability is a widespread phenomenon; that a further recapitalisation of around ten billion euros is necessary; and that, more importantly, limiting interventions to the overhang problem does not put the majority of Italian banks into a viability path due to the inefficiencies coming from their current business models. The analysis of the Italian case strengthens the critique of current regulation and supervision because, not focusing on bank profitability, they do not avoid threats on solvency coming from the accumulation of NPLs.  We thus argue that the structural changes necessary to put the Italian banking system into a viable path require new regulatory and supervisory approaches.

 JEL codes: G01, G20, G28, G32

 


Keyword


banks, NPLs, viability, regulation, supervision, Italy

Full Text

PDF

Riferimenti bibliografici


Associazione Bancaria Italiana (ABI) (2017), “La ristrutturazione delle banche europee”, estratto dal Rapporto ABI 2016 sul Mercato del Lavoro nell’Industria Finanziaria, 20 marzo, Roma: ABI. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.abi.it/DOC_Lavoro/Rapporti-statistiche/Mercato-del-lavoro /Rapporto-sulmercatodel-lavoro/Rapporto-sul-mercato-del-lavoro/02-La%20 ristrutturazione%20delle%20banche%20europee%20-%20Estratto%20 Rapporto%202016.pdf

Aiyar S., Bergthaler W., Garrido J.M., Ilyina A., Jobst A., Kang K., Kovtun D., Liu Y., Monaghan D., Moretti M. (2015), “A Strategy for Resolving Europe’s Problem Loans”, IMF Staff Discussion Note, n. SDN/15/19, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale. Disponibile alla URL: http://www.imf.org/~/media/Websites/IMF/imported-full-text-pdf/external /pubs/ft/sdn/2015/_sdn1519.ashx.

Aiyar S., Banerji A., Berkmen P., Bluedorn J., Kang K., Lin H., Jobst A., John J., Saksonovs S., Wu T., Kinda T., Monaghan D., Moretti M., Portier J., Bergthaler W., Garrido J., Liu Y., Barkbu B., Schoelermann H. (2016), “Policy Options for Tackling Non-Performing Loans in the Euro Area”, Euro Area Policy. Selected Issues, Country Report n. 15/205, pp. 57-73, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale.

Albertazzi U., Notarpietro A., Siviero S. (2016), “An Inquiry of the Determinants of the Profitability of Italian Banks”, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers), n. 364, Roma: Banca d’Italia.

Angeloni I. (2016), “Osservazioni introduttive”, in Senato della Repubblica italiana (ed.), Indagine conoscitiva sulle condizioni del sistema bancario e finanziario italiano e sulla tutela del risparmio, anche con riferimento alla vigilanza, alla risoluzione delle crisi e alla garanzia dei depositi europei, 3 maggio, Roma: Senato della Repubblica italiana. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.senato.it/application/xmanager/projects/leg17/attachments/documento_evento_procedura_commissione/files/000/003/858/CONSIGLIO_DI_VIGILANZA_BCE.pdf

Avgouleas E., Goodhart C. (2015), “Critical Reflections on Bank Bail-Ins”, Journal of Financial Regulation, vol. 1 n. 1, pp. 3-29.

Avgouleas E., Goodhart C. (2017), “Utilizing AMCs to Tackle Eurozone’s Legacy Non-Performing Loans”, European Economy, n. 1, pp. 97-112.

Banca Centrale Europea (BCE) (2016), Raccomandazione della Banca Centrale Europea del 13 dicembre 2016 sulle politiche di distribuzione dei dividendi, BCE/2016/44, Francoforte sul Meno: Banca Centrale Europea. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/banking/letterstobanks/shared/pdf/2016/dividend_distribution_2016.it.pdf?e03bd17c31433408bfe88779d9a5db18

Banca Centrale Europea (BCE) (2017a), Stocktake of National Supervisory Practices and Legal Frameworks Related to NPLs, giugno, Francoforte sul Meno: Banca Centrale Europea. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.bankingsupervision .europa.eu/ecb/pub/pdf/ssm.stock_taking2017.en.pdf.

Banca Centrale Europea (BCE) (2017b), Addendum alle linee guida della BCE per le banche sui crediti deteriorate (NPL): livelli minimi di accantonamento prudenziale per le esposizioni deteriorate, ottobre, Francoforte sul Meno: Banca Centrale Europea. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.bankingsupervision .europa.eu/legalframework/publiccons/pdf/npl2/ssm.npl_addendum_draft_201710.it.pdf.

Banca d’Italia (2016), Rapporto sulla stabilità finanziaria, n. 1, aprile, Roma: Banca d’Italia. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni /rapporto-stabilita/2016-1/RSF-1-2016.pdf.

Banca d’Italia (2017a), Rapporto sulla stabilità finanziaria, n. 1, aprile, Roma: Banca d’Italia. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni /rapporto-stabilita/2017-1/RSF-1-2017.pdf.

Banca d’Italia (2017b), Considerazioni finali del Governatore. Relazione Annuale anno 2016, 31 maggio, Roma: Banca d’Italia. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/interventi-governatore/integov2017/cf_2016.pdf.

Banca d’Italia (2017c), Relazione Annuale anno 2016, 31 maggio, Roma: Banca d’Italia. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni /relazione-annuale/2016/rel_2016.pdf.

Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) (2012), Principi fondamentali per un’efficace vigilanza bancaria, settembre, Basilea: Banca per i Regolamenti Internazionali. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs230_it.pdf.

Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) (2017), Prudential Treatment of Problem Assets-Definitions of Non-Performing Exposures and Forbearance, aprile, Basilea: Banca per i Regolamenti Internazionali. Disponibile alla Url: https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d403.pdf.

Beck T. (2017), “The European Banking Union at Three: A Toddler with Tantrums”, vox-eu, 4 luglio. Disponibile alla URL: http://voxeu.org/article/european-banking-union-three.

Bouvatier V., Lepetit L., Strobel F. (2014), “Bank Income Smoothing, Ownership Concentration and the Regulatory Environment”, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 41, pp. 253-270.

Bruno B., Lusignani G., Onado M. (2017), “Why We Need to Breach the Taboos on European banks’ Non-Performing Loans”, European Economy, n. 1, pp. 113-124.

Ciocca P. (2005), The Italian Financial System Remodelled, Basingstoke (UK): Palgrave Macmillan.

Commissione Europea (2015), “State Aid to European Banks: Returning to Viability”, Competition State aid brief, n. 2015-01, Bruxelles: Commissione Europea. Disponibile alla URL: ec.europa.eu/competition/publications/csb/csb2015_001_en.pdf.

Commissione Europea (2016), “Aid in the Context of the Financial and Economic Crisis”, State Aid Scoreboard 2016, Bruxelles: Commissione Europea. Disponibile alla URL: http://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/scoreboard/.

Commissione Europea (2017), Development of Secondary Markets for Non-Performing Loans and Distressed Assets and Protection of Secured Creditors from Borrowers’ Default, Consultation Document, Bruxelles: Commissione Europea. Disponibile alla URL: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/2017-non-performing-loans-consultation-document_en.pdf

Consiglio Europeo e Consiglio dell’Unione Europea (2017), “Conclusioni del Consiglio sul piano di azione per affrontare la questione dei crediti deteriorati in Europa”, Comunicato stampa, 11 luglio. Disponibile alla URL: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/it/press/press-releases/2017/07/11/conclusions-non-performing-loans/pdf

Constâncio V. (2016), “Challenges for the European Banking Industry”, intervento alla conferenza European Banking Industry: What’s Next?, organizzato dalla Università di Navarra, Madrid, 7 luglio. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2016/html/sp160707_1.en.html

Constâncio V. (2017a), “Challenges Faced by European Banking Sector”, intervento alla conferenza Risk & Supervision, organizzata dall’Associazione Bancaria Italiana, Roma, 14 giugno. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu /press/key/date/2017/html/ecb.sp170614.en.html

Constâncio V. (2017b), “Resolving Europe’s NPL Burden: Challenges and Benefits”, intervento all’evento Tackling Europe’s Non-Performing Loan Crisis: Restructuring Debt, Reviving Growth, organizzato da Bruegel, Bruxelles, 3 febbraio. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2017/html/sp170203.en.html

Consiglio dell’Unione Europea (2017), Report of the FSC Subgroup on Non-Performing Loans, 31 maggio, Bruxelles: Consiglio dell’Unione Europea. Disponibile alla URL: http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-9854-2017-INIT/en /pdf

Deutsche Bundesbank (2017), “Results of the 2017 Low-Interest-Rate Survey”, comunicato stampa, 30 agosto. Disponibile alla URL: http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Pressemitteilungen/BBK/2017/2017_08_30_joint_press_release.html

Dombret A. (2017a), “Failing or Likely to Fail? Putting the European Banking Union to the Test”, intervento alla Deutsche Bundesbank’s University of Applied Sciences, 21 agosto, Hachenburg. Disponibile alla URL: http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Reden/2017/2017_08_21_dombret.html

Dombret A. (2017b), “Germany’s Banks – The Moment of Truth for Decision-Makers”, 21 settembre. Disponibile alla URL: http://www.bundesbank.de /Redaktion/EN/Reden/2017/2017_09_21_dombret.html

Draghi M. (2016), “Introductory Statement to the Press Conference (with Q&A)”, ECB Press Conferences, 21 gennaio, Francoforte sul Meno: Banca Centrale Europea. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2016/html/is160121.en.html

Enria A. (2017a), “The EU Banking Sector – Risks and Recovery. A Single Market Perspective”, Luxembourg: European Stability Mechanism, 30 gennaio. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.eba.europa.eu/documents/10180 /1735921 /The+EU+banking+sector+-+risks+and+recovery.pdf

Enria A. (2017b), “Where There Is a Will, There Is a Way: Completing the Repair of the Banking Sector in Europe”, intervento alla CIRSF Annual International Conference 2017, 1 luglio, Lisbona. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/1863663/Andrea+Enria%27s+speech+at+the+CIRSF+Annual+International+Conference+2017.pdf

European Banking Authority (EBA) (2014), Guidelines on Common Procedures and Methodologies for the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP), EBA/GL/2014/13, 19 dicembre, Londra: European Banking Authority. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/935249 /EBA-GL-2014-13+%28Guidelines+on+SREP+methodologies+and+processes%29.pdf.

European Banking Authority (EBA) (2016), Risk Assessment of the European Banking System, dicembre, Luxembourg: Publication Office of the European Union. Disponibile alla URL: http://www.eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/1315397 /EBA+Risk+Assessment+Report_December+2016.pdf.

European Banking Authority (EBA) (2017a), Risk Assessment Questionnaire (RAQ) – Summary of Results, giugno, Londra: European Banking Authority. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/1898284/Risk +Assessment+Questionnaire+-+June+2017.pdf.

European Banking Authority (EBA) (2017b), EBA Report on Results from the Second EBA Impact Assessment of IFRS 9, 13 luglio, Londra: European Banking Authority. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.eba.europa.eu/documents/ 10180/1720738/EBA+Report+on+results+from+the+2nd+EBA+IFRS9+IA.pdf

European Banking Authority (EBA) (2017c), Risk Dashboard. Data as of Q4 2016, aprile, Londra: European Banking Authority. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/1804996/EBA+Dashboard+-+Q4+2016.pdf/74c92eb4-3083-47fc-bd5d-6a8ac64e8393.

European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) (2016), Macroprudential Policy Issues arising from Low Interest Rates and Structural Changes in the EU Financial System, Report, novembre, Francoforte sul Meno: Banca Centrale Europea. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/reports/161128_low_interest _rate_report.en.pdf

Focarelli D., Panetta F., Salleo C. (2004), “Quali sono le cause e gli effetti delle fusioni e acquisizioni tra banche?”, in Panetta F. (a cura di), (2004), Il sistema bancario italiano negli anni novanta. Gli effetti di una trasformazione, pp. 73-98, Bologna: Il Mulino.

Fondo Monetario Internazionale (2013), “Italy. Technical Note on Stress Testing the Banking Sector”, IMF Country Report, n. 13/349, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale.

Fondo Monetario Internazionale (2017a), “Getting the Policy Mix Right”, Global Financial Stability Report, aprile, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale.

Fondo Monetario Internazionale (2017b), “Staff Report for the 2017 Article IV Consultation, Italy”, IMF Country Report, n. 17/237, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale.

Garrido J., Kopp E., Weber A. (2016), “Cleaning-Up Bank Balance Sheets: Economic, Legal and Supervisory Measures for Italy”, IMF Working Paper, n. WP/16/135, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale.

Gaston E., Song I. (2014), “Supervisory Roles in Loan Loss Provisioning in Countries Implementing IFRS”, IMF Working Paper, n. WP/14/170, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale.

Gros D., de Groen W.P. (2016), “A Radical Cure for Italy’s Banking Problems: A Combination of Good Banks and Soft Bail-In”, CEPS Policy Brief, n. 361, Bruxelles: Centre for European Policy Studies.

Haben P., Quagliarello M. (2017), “Why the EU Needs an Asset Management Company”, Central Banking, 20 febbraio, pp. 1-7. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banking-journal/opinion/2481794/why-the-eu-needs-an-asset-management-company

Hellwig M. (2014), “Yes Virginia, There Is a European Banking Union! But It May Not Make Your Wishes Come True”, MPI Collective Goods Preprint, n. 2014/12, Bonn: Max Planck Institute. Disponibile alla URL: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2487757.

Hellwig M. (2017), Precautionary recapitalisation: time for a review, European Parliament, Directorate-General for Internal Policies, Economic Governance and Support Unit, Bruxelles: Parlamento Europeo. Disponibile alla URL: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2017/602089/IPOL_IDA(2017)602089_EN.pdf

Independent Commission on Banking (ICB) (2011), Final Report. Recommendations, settembre, Londra: ICB. Disponibile alla URL: http://bankingcommission.independent.gov.uk/

Jassaud N., Kang K. (2015), “A Strategy for Developing a Market for Nonperforming Loans in Italy”, IMF Working Paper, n. WP/15/24, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale.

Jobst A., Topalova P., Weber A. (2016), “Profitability and Balance Sheet Repair of Italian Banks”, IMF Country Report, n. 16/223, Italy, Selected Issues, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale.

Kok C., Mirza H., Móré C., Pancaro C. (2016), “Adapting Bank Business Models: Financial Stability Implications of Greater Reliance on Fee and Commission Income”, ECB Financial Stability Review, novembre, pp. 147-157. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/financialstabilityreview 201611.en.pdf.

Kregel J. (2014), “Minsky and Dynamic Macroprudential Regulation”, PSL Quarterly Review, vol. 67 n. 269, pp. 217-238.

Lusignani G., Onado M. (2014), “A Long-Term Approach to Italian Banks’ Profitability. Paradise Lost?”, Journal of Financial Perspectives, vol. 2 n. 1, pp. 1-26.

Marcucci M., Pischedda A., Profeta V. (2015), “The Changes of the Italian Insolvency and Foreclosure Regulation Adopted in 2015”, Notes on Financial Stability and Supervision, n. 2, novembre, Roma: Banca d’Italia.

Masera R., Mazzoni G. (2016), “On the Non-Neutrality of the Financing Policy and the Capital Regulation of Banking Firms”, Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 33 n. 4, pp. 466-487.

Mesnard B., Margerit A., Power C., Magnus M. (2016), Non-Performing Loans in the Banking Union: Stocktaking and Challenges, European Parliament, Directorate General for Internal Policies, Economic Governance and Support Unit, 18 marzo, Bruxelles: Parlamento Europeo. Disponibile alla URL: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/574400/IPOL_BRI(2016)574400_EN.pdf.

Micossi S., Bruzzone G., Cassella M. (2016), “Fine-Tuning the Use of Bail-In to Promote a Stronger EU Financial System”, CEPS Special Report, n. 136, aprile, Bruxelles: Centre for European Policy Studies. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.ceps.eu/system/files/CEPS%20SR%20No%20136%20Bail-in%20StateAid%20and%20Public%20Interest.pdf

Minsky H. (1967), “Suggestions for a Cash Flow Oriented Bank Examination", Hyman P. Minsky Archive, paper 175, Annandale-on-Hudson (NY): Bard College. Disponibile alla URL: http://digitalcommons.bard.edu/hm_archive/175

Minsky H. (1975), “Suggestions for a Cash-Flow Oriented Bank Examination”, intervento alla 11a conferenza su “Bank Structure and Competition”, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1-2 maggio, Hyman P. Minsky Archive, paper 17, Annandale-on-Hudson (NY): Bard College. Disponibile alla URL: http://digitalcommons.bard.edu/hm_archive/17

Minsky H. (1995), “Reforming Banking in 1995: Repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, Some Basic Issues”, Hyman P. Minsky Archive, paper 59, Annandale-on-Hudson (NY): Bard College. Disponibile alla URL: http://digitalcommons.bard.edu /hm_archive/59/.

Mohaddes K, Raissi M., Weber A. (2017), “Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis”, IMF Working Paper, n. WP/17/66, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WP/2017/wp1766.ashx.

Montanaro E., Tonveronachi M. (2006), “I processi di concentrazione nella gestione delle crisi bancarie. Il caso italiano, 1992-2004”, Banca Impresa e Società, vol. 25 n. 3, pp. 315-340.

Pagano M. Langfield S., Acharya V., Boot A., Brunnermeier M., Buch C., Hellwig M., Sapir A., van den Burget I. (2014), “Is Europe Overbanked?”, ESRB Reports of the Advisory Scientific Committee, n. 4, giugno, Francoforte sul Meno: European Systemic Risk Board. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub /pdf/asc/Reports_ASC_4_1406.pdf.

Panetta F. (2017), intervento al Seminario istituzionale sulle tematiche legate ai non performing loans, Camera dei Deputati, VI Commissione Permanente (Finanze), 15 maggio, Roma: Camera dei Deputati. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/interventi-direttorio/int-dir-2017/Panetta-150517.pdf.

Persaud A. (2014), “Why Bail-In Securities Are Fool’s Gold”, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Policy Brief, n. PB14-23, novembre, Washington (DC): Peterson Institute for International Economics. Disponibile alla URL: https://piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/why-bail-securities-are-fools-gold.

Rossi S. (2017), “Europe: from Monetary to Economic Union and Beyond”, intervento all’Almo Collegio Borromeo, 14 giugno, Pavia. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/interventi-direttorio/int-dir-2017/en-rossi_14062017.pdf

Tonveronachi M. (2016), “Tre proposte per rivitalizzare l’Unione Europea”, Moneta e Credito, vol. 69 n. 276, pp. 367-404. Disponibile alla URL: http://laboratoriocritico.uniroma1.it/index.php/monetaecredito/article/download/13788/13561.

Véron N. (2016a), “European Banks: Bumpy Transition to a New Policy Regime”, in Blanchard O., Posen A.S. (a cura di), Reality Check for the Global Economy, PIIE Briefing, n. 16-3, pp. 23-26; Washington (DC): Peterson Institute for International Economics. Disponibile alla URL: https://piie.com/system/files /documents/piieb16-3.pdf.

Véron N. (2016b), “Italy’s Banking Problem Is Serious But Can Be Fixed”, Bruegel Blog Post, 14 luglio, disponibile alla URL: http://bruegel.org/2016/07/italys-banking-problem-is-serious-but-can-be-fixed/

Véron N. (2017), “Precautionary Recapitalisation: Time for a Review?”, Bruegel Policy Contribution, n. 21, luglio. Disponibile alla URL: http://bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/PC-21-2017-BRRD-1.pdf

Visco I. (2016), “Indagine conoscitiva sulle condizioni del sistema bancario e finanziario italiano e la tutela del risparmio, anche con riferimento alla vigilanza, la risoluzione delle crisi e la garanzia dei depositi europee”, audizione del Governatore della Banca d’Italia, Senato della Repubblica, 6° Commissione permanente (Finanze e Tesoro), 19 aprile, Roma: Senato della Repubblica. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni /interventi-governatore/integov2016/audizione-governatore-19042016.pdf

Visco I. (2017), “Intervento del Governatore all’Assemblea annuale dell’Associazione Bancaria Italiana”, Associazione Bancaria Italiana, 12 luglio, Roma. Disponibile all’URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/interventi-governatore /integov2017visco-abi_120717.PDF

Weber A. (2017), “Bank Consolidation, Efficiency and Profitability in Italy”, IMF Working Paper, n. WP/17/175, Washington (DC): Fondo Monetario Internazionale. Disponibile alla URL: https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files /Publications/WP/2017/wp17175.ashx


Refback

  • Non ci sono refbacks, per ora.


Copyright (c) 2017 Elisabetta Montanaro, Mario Tonveronachi

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

 

Con il contributo di  

ISSN 2037-3651

Reg. Tribunale di Roma n.377/2009 del 19/11/2009