Franco Modigliani e la teoria del ciclo vitale del consumo (Franco Modigliani and the life-cycle theory of consumption)

Angus Deaton

Abstract


Nei primi anni ’50, Franco Modigliani e il suo studente Richard Brumberg elaborarono una teoria della spesa fondata sull’idea che gli individui effettuano scelte intelligenti su quanto desiderano spendere a ogni età, con il solo limite delle risorse disponibili nel corso della loro vita. 
Attraverso l’accumulo e il decumulo delle attività, chi lavora può provvedere alla propria pensione e, più in generale, può adattare i propri modelli di consumo alle esigenze che si presentano alle diverse età, indipendentemente dal reddito disponibile in ogni momento della sua vita. Questa semplice teoria conduce a previsioni rilevanti e non scontate per l’economia nel suo complesso, ad esempio che il risparmio nazionale dipende dal tasso di crescita del reddito nazionale e non dal suo livello, e che esiste una semplice relazione tra il livello della ricchezza nel sistema economico e la lunghezza del periodo trascorso in pensione. Tali previsioni, non verificabili negli anni ’50, hanno trovato considerevole sostegno empirico in successivi lavori di Modigliani e di altri ricercatori. Sebbene nel corso degli anni la teoria del consumo abbia subito numerosi attacchi, i più recenti dei quali mossi da una coalizione di psicologi ed economisti, l’ipotesi del ciclo vitale rimane una parte essenziale del pensiero degli economisti. Senza di essa avremmo molto meno da dire circa molte importanti questioni, quali l’offerta pubblica e privata di previdenza sociale, gli effetti del mercato azionario sull’economia, le conseguenze dei mutamenti demografici sul risparmio nazionale, il ruolo del risparmio nella crescita economica e le determinanti della ricchezza nazionale. 

 

In the early '50s, Franco Modigliani and his student Richard Brumberg elaborated a theory of expenditure based on the idea that individuals make smart choices about how they want to spend at any age, with the only limit of the available resources in the course of their lives. Through the accumulation and decumulation of assets, those who work can provide for their own retirement and, more generally, can adapt their consumption patterns to the needs that arise at different ages, regardless of income available in every moment of his life. This simple theory leads to predictions relevant and not discounted for the economy as a whole, for example, that national saving depends on the rate of growth of national income and not on his level, and there is a simple relationship between the level of wealth in the economic system and the length of time spent in retirement. These forecasts, not verifiable in the '50s, they found considerable empirical support in the subsequent work of Modigliani and other researchers. Although over the years the theory of consumption has suffered numerous attacks, the most recent of which are driven by a coalition of psychologists and economists, the hypothesis of the life cycle remains an essential part of the thinking of economists. Without it we would have much less to say about many important issues, such as providing public and private social security, the effects of the stock market on the economy, the impact of demographic change on national savings, the role of saving in economic growth and the determinants of national wealth.

 

 

JEL Codes: B31, E21

Keywords: Franco Modigliani, verifiche empiriche, ciclo vitale, Keynes, disoccupazione, teoria della spesa


Keyword


Franco Modigliani, verifiche empiriche, ciclo vitale, Keynes, disoccupazione, teoria della spesa

Full Text

PDF

Riferimenti bibliografici


ANDO, A. e F. MODIGLIANI (1963), "The ‘life-cycle’ hypothesis of saving: aggregate implications and tests", American Economic Review, vol. 53, no. 1, pp. 55-84.

BANKS, J., R. BLUNDELL e S. TANNER (1998), "Is there a retirement-savings puzzle?", American Economic Review, vol. 88, no. 4, pp. 769-88.

BARNETT, W.A. e R.M. SOLOW (2000), "An interview with Franco Modigliani", Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 222-56.

BARRO, R.J. (1974), "Are government bonds net wealth?", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 82, no. 6, pp. 1095-117.

CARROLL, C.D. (1997), "Buffer-stock saving and the life-cycle/permanent income hypothesis", Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 112, no. 1, pp. 1-55.

CARROLL, C.D. e L.H. SUMMERS (1991), "Consumption growth parallels income growth: some new evidence", in B.D. Bernheim and J.B. Shoven eds, National Saving and Economic Performance, Chicago University Press for NBER, Chicago, pp. 305-43.

DEATON, A. (1991), "Saving and liquidity constraints", Econometrica, vol. 59, no. 5, pp. 1221-48.

FLAVIN, M. (1981), "The adjustment of consumption to changing expectations about income", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 89, no. 5, pp. 974-1009.

GOURINCHAS, P.-O. e J.A. PARKER (2002), "Consumption over the life-cycle", Econometrica, vol. 70, no. 1, pp. 47-89.

HALL, R.E. (1978), "Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: theory and evidence", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 86, no. 6, pp. 971-87.

HARROD, R.F. (1948), Towards a Dynamic Economics, Macmillan, London.

HOUTHAKKER, H.S. (1965), "On some determinants of saving in developed and underdeveloped countries", in E.A.G. Robinson ed., Problems in Economic Development, Macmillan, London, pp. 212-24.

JAPPELLI, T. e F. MODIGLIANI (1998), "The age saving profile and the life-cycle hypothesis", CSEF Working Paper, no. 9, Università degli Studi di Salerno,Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance; ristampato in Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani, vol. 6, MIT Press, London, 2005, pp. 141-72.

KOTLIKOFF, L. (1988), "Intergenerational transfers and savings", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 41-58.

KOTLIKOFF, L. e L.H. SUMMERS (1981), "The role of intergenerational transfers in aggregate capital formation", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 89, no. 4, pp. 706-32.

LAIBSON, D.I. (1997), "Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting", Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 112, no. 2, pp. 443-77.

LAIBSON, D.I. e C. HARRIS (2001), "Dynamic choices of hyperbolic consumers", Econometrica, vol. 69, no. 4, pp. 935-57.

MCCLURE, S.M., D.I. LAIBSON, G. LOEWENSTEIN and J.D. COHEN (2004), "Separate neural systems value immediate and delayed monetary rewards", Science, vol. 306, no. 5695, pp. 503-07.

MERTON, R.C. (1971), "Optimal consumption and portfolio rules in a continuoustime model", Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 373-413.


Refback

  • Non ci sono refbacks, per ora.


Copyright (c) 2016 Angus Deaton

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

 

Con il contributo di  

ISSN 2037-3651

Reg. Tribunale di Roma n.377/2009 del 19/11/2009