Razionalità versus "chartism": conseguenze per la teoria dei cambi



The aim of the work is to interpret recent topics of discussion related to the theory of exchange rates, taking into account the conclusions of the theoretical research on financial and currency markets. The author suggests that the setup of the analysis of financial markets should be reconsidered to focus on the elements of inertia and uncertainty in the behaviour of economic agents, factors that are capable of distancing currency markets from efficient conditions. Highlighting the existing empirical and theoretical principals, the author first considers the various reasons for the compatibility of rationality with the distortion of expectations and then the characteristics of the models of the formation of expectations regarding the nature of speculation. A fundamental component of short-term dynamics is identified in "chartism", for which the theoretical reasons are discussed.


 JEL Codes: D51


Parole chiave

Rationality, chartism, exchange rates, currency markets, speculation

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