Dalla crisi del cambio al salvataggio del FMI: cronaca del naufragio argentino

Roberto Lampa, Nicolas H. Zeolla

Abstract


Tra dicembre 2015 e Maggio 2018 il governo argentino ha realizzato politiche di liberalizzazione finanziaria, inclusa l’eliminazione di controlli sul regime dei cambi. Nonostante fondamentali macroeconomici fragili, la banca centrale ha emesso sia passività speculative sia debito oltre i 70 miliardi di dollari. Contrariamente alle attese la liberalizzazione del conto capitale ha indotto una fuga di capitali, un sudden stop del debito privato e pubblico, e una crisi valutaria. Il FMI ha salvato l’Argentina con due accordi stand by. Ciononostante, la solvibilità del paese non è assicurata, nelle condizioni date.

Between December 2015 and May 2018, Argentina’s administration implemented a sharp financial liberalization, which included foreign exchange controls elimination. Notwithstanding fragile macroeconomic fundamentals, the central bank issued both a big amount of speculative liabilities and over 70 billion USD of debt. Contrary to what expected, capital account liberalization triggered a massive capital flight, a sudden stop to government and corporate debt and a currency crisis. The IMF rescued Argentina by means of two different stand by agreements. Nevertheless, Argentina’s solvency cannot be taken for granted under the current circumstances.

.JEL codes: G01; F32; F34


Parole chiave


Argentina; Currency Crisis; Debt; IMF

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_72.287_10

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Reg. Tribunale di Roma n.377/2009 del 19/11/2009