L'economia statunitense: debolezza della "forte" ripresa (The U.S. economy: the weakness of the "strong" recovery)

Wynne Godley, Alex Izurieta

Abstract


Le prospettive strategiche dell’economia statunitense (o di altri paesi) possono venire valutate analizzando i bilanci finanziari del suoi principali settori, che sono tra loro collegati da un coerente sistema di contabilità. L’espansione del periodo 1992-2000, accompagnata da un crescente avanzo di bilancio, venne accolta da un’ondata di autocompiacimento negli Stati Uniti e si ritenne che potesse durare all’infinito. Tuttavia l’esame dei bilanci rivela che la configurazione delle forze trainanti era insostenibile e che l’orientamento della politica fiscale doveva drasticamente cambiare a un certo punto. Alla fine, vi è stata in effetti un’enorme espansione fiscale che evitò un’imminente recessione. Tuttavia la nuova configurazione dei bilanci finanziari rivela nuovamente una situazione insostenibile, con il debito pubblico, quello estero e quello privato che crescono in modo eccessivamente veloce. La crescita sostenuta nel medio termine può essere raggiunta solo se si verifica una prolungata espansione nella domanda netta di esportazioni, per la quale tuttavia il resto del mondo non sembra ben preparato.

 

The strategic outlook of the U.S. economy (or other countries) can be assessed by analyzing the financial statements of its main sectors, which are connected together by a coherent system of accounting. The expansion of the period 1992-2000, accompanied by a growing surplus, was greeted by a wave of complacency in the United States and it was thought that it could last forever. However, the examination of financial statements reveals that the configuration of the driving forces was unsustainable and that the orientation of fiscal policy was to change dramatically at some point. In the end, there was in fact a huge fiscal expansion that prevented an imminent recession. However, the new configuration of the financial statements reveals again an untenable situation, with the public debt, the foreign and the private grow too quickly. The sustained growth in the medium term can only be achieved if there is a long expansion in the net demand for exports, which, however, the rest of the world does not seem well prepared.

 

 

JEL Codes: E62, E66, F32, H3, H62

 


Parole chiave


contabilità, settori, Stati Uniti, bilancio finanziario, debito

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Reg. Tribunale di Roma n.377/2009 del 19/11/2009