Tassi di cambio fluttuanti, deprezzamento valutario e domanda effettiva (Floating exchange rates, currency depreciation and actual demand)

Julio López, Ignacio Perrotini

Abstract


Il presente articolo esamina i vantaggi relativi dei tassi di cambio fluttuanti nei confronti di un regime di tassi di cambio a parità rigidamente ancorate (hard peg), ponendo particolare enfasi sulle implicazioni per la domanda effettiva. In particolare, esso valuta se un deprezzamento della valuta abbia un effetto benefico sulla domanda aggregata e dunque sull’occupazione. Si sostiene che tale questione è centrale per il principio della domanda effettiva, e che l’idea che un deprezzamento valutario sia in grado di stabilizzare la domanda effettiva, equivale in larga misura a sostenere che la flessibilità (verso il basso) dei salari nominali (e reali) possa assicurare la piena occupazione. Coerentemente con ciò, viene analizzata la relazione tra la flessibilità verso il basso dei salari e la domanda effettiva, e viene valutata criticamente (dal punto di vista sia teorico sia empirico) l’ipotesi che la flessibilità del tasso di cambio possa avere proprietà stabilizzanti quando si tenga conto di shock esogeni di varia natura. L’articolo si chiude con brevi deduzioni di teoria e di politica economiche.

 

This paper examines the relative advantages of floating exchange rates against a system of exchange rates for the same rigidly anchored (hard peg), with particular emphasis on the implications for effective demand. In particular, it will assess whether a currency depreciation has a beneficial effect on aggregate demand and hence employment. It is argued that this issue is central to the principle of effective demand, and that the idea that a currency depreciation is able to stabilize the effective demand, is equivalent to a large extent to support that flexibility (down) in nominal wages (and real) to ensure full employment. Consistent with this, we analyze the relationship between the downward flexibility of wages and effective demand, and is critically evaluated (in terms of both theoretical and empirical) hypothesis that the flexibility of the exchange rate can have stabilizing properties when account is taken of external shocks of varying nature. The article closes with brief conclusions of economic theory and policy.

 

 

JEL Codes: E0, F4, N1

Keywords: tassi di cambio, domanda aggregata, occupazione, salari

 


Parole chiave


tassi di cambio, domanda aggregata, occupazione, salari

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