L’economia statunitense: debolezze della “forte” ripresa (The US Economy: Weakness of the 'Strong' Recovery)

Wynne Godley, Alex Izurieta

Abstract


The strategic prospects for the US (or any) economy can be evaluated by reference to the financial balances of its main sectors, which are related to one another by a consistent accounting system. The 1992-2000 expansion, accompanied by a rising budget surplus, was greeted by a storm of self-congratulation in the US and widely expected to last indefinitely. But inspection of the balances revealed that the configuration of driving forces was unsustainable and that the fiscal stance should drastically change at some stage. Eventually, there has indeed been a huge fiscal expansion which warded off an incipient recession. But the new configuration of financial balances again reveals an unsustainable situation, with government, foreign and private debt all rising excessively fast. Sustained growth in the medium term can only be achieved if there is now a prolonged expansion in net export demand--for which the rest of the world does not seem to be well prepared.

 

Le prospettive strategiche dell’economia statunitense (o di altri paesi) possono venire valutate analizzando i bilanci finanziari del suoi principali settori, che sono tra loro collegati da un coerente sistema di contabilità. L’espansione del periodo 1992-2000, accompagnata da un crescente avanzo di bilancio, venne accolta da un’ondata di autocompiacimento negli Stati Uniti e si ritenne che potesse durare all’infinito. Tuttavia l’esame dei bilanci rivela che la configurazione delle forze trainanti era insostenibile e che l’orientamento della politica fiscale doveva drasticamente cambiare a un certo punto. Alla fine, vi è stata in effetti un’enorme espansione fiscale che evitò un’imminente recessione. Tuttavia la nuova configurazione dei bilanci finanziari rivela nuovamente una situazione insostenibile, con il debito pubblico, quello estero e quello privato che crescono in modo eccessivamente veloce. La crescita sostenuta nel medio termine può essere raggiunta solo se vi ora si verifica una prolungata espansione nella domanda netta di esportazioni, per la quale tuttavia il resto del mondo non sembra ben preparato.

 

 

JEL Codes: E62, E66, F32, H3, H62

Keywords: Budget, Surplus


Parole chiave


Budget; Surplus

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Riferimenti bibliografici


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Reg. Tribunale di Roma n.377/2009 del 19/11/2009